Is Jeff Albert a Good or Bad Hitting Coach?

by: Brady (bradynw13@gmail.com)

Over the last few years the Cardinals offense has not been good. That's not a secret. By runs scored, team wRC+, team batting average or any single stat you can think of, they haven’t been good. As a result of this many Cardinals fans have blamed Jeff Albert for this and I think that’s not too unfair as the years leading up to his hiring the cardinals offense was consistently very good. But correlation doesn’t always equal causation so I think a more in depth analysis would help determine whether or not he is good or bad as a hitting coach.

The Paul Goldschimt case:

During his time with the Diamondbacks, Goldschmidt was a superstar no matter how you slice it. Over his 8 years with the team he had a 145 wRC+ and was an all around elite hitter. He made contact often, hit for power, and walked at a very good rate. When he was traded to St Louis he was expected to keep up the same pace but he didn’t. He struggled in his first season here. everything except his power regressed as he was walking less and making contact less. This version of Goldschimt only had a 116 wRC+ on the season which was a bitter disappointment for a hitter who is seen as elite. Contact I suppose you could chalk up to age but there’s no excuse for a sudden drop in plate discipline except for well the coaching of the team. In 2020 it looked like he had returned to old form with a 146 wRC+ covid shortened season, but in 2021 he’s back to the merely above average hitter he was in 2019 at least by results. However, I believe results don’t tell the full story for 2021. His batted ball data leads me to believe he is getting quite unlucky. He is still hitting the ball as hard as ever with a 55.5 Hard Hit% this season which ranks as the best in his career, while his launch angle has better a little sporadic this season with a little too many groundballs and fly outs, a very good second half is on the way for Goldschmidt I believe. Despite this, his plate discipline still hasn’t been up to par with his Diamondbacks years so I can’t fully say that Jeff Albert gets the bad luck excuse for this one. The regression of Goldschmidt still looks quite bad for Jeff Albert’s case as a good hitting coach.

The Tyler O’Neill case:

Tyler O’Neill has been a very good developmental story for the Cardinals this season. After 3 season of offensive struggling. O’Neill has finally pulled something together and was the Cardinals’ best hitting during the first half of the season. His launch angle issues that he experienced through the first 3 years of his career have not nearly been as much of an issue this season, and while he’s still not a god when it comes to plate discipline, he has gotten better. This development looks especially good for Jeff Albert when you consider the fact that Tyler O’Neill is one of the players who works most with Albert. I don’t think I really need to say more; this is definitely a bright spot for Jeff Albert as a coach.

The Harrison Bader case:

Harrison Bader, along with O’Neill has been a very good developmental story for the Cardinals this season. When he’s actually been healthy enough to play. Decreasing your strikeout rate from 32.0% to 16.1% in a matter of one off season is very impressive. And what once seemed like a fantasy in early 2019 his wRC+ since 2020 has been an above average mark at 107. He’s also shown massive development on hitting sliders. his inability to hit sliders was a massive talking point by Cardinals fans who criticized him, but in 2021 he’s hitting .310 against them with a .517 slugging percentage. at this point I think I’m willing to say he is a slightly above average hitter which is all Bader needs to be to be a very valuable player considering his defense. Definitely another bright spot for Albert.

The minor league hitting case:

The cardinals have had a disappointing season this year and while that may suck, the Cardinals have had some really amazing sluggers to watch in the minor leagues. Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson have all been mashing the ball and they all look like really good prospects for the future. Every minor league team for the cardinals have had a very good offense in general. The minor league teams are said to follow Jeff Albert’s hitting philosophy so this looks quite good for him.

The linedrive case:

with the Cardinals lack of power hitting they’ve had since 2019, a good offensive approach to make up for this would be to hit line drives, and the cardinals for the most part have not done this. in 2021 they are 23rd in line drives and in 2019 they were 17th and in 2020 they were 12th. With a lineup that doesn’t have power a coaching staff should preach a heavy line drive oriented approach. Either Jeff Albert has not tried to preach this or he isn’t doing a very good job of teaching players to hit linedrives. The cardinals approach from non power hitters is more of to hit a lot of ground balls and fly outs which is not a very good approach to have. Albert needs to get better at making players hit lie drives while the cardinals still have a lineup mostly lacking in power.

The Walk% Case:

Walk rates have been very good for the cardinals since Albert took over. In 2020 they were 6th in walk rate and in 2019 they were 8th. their walk rate in 2021 has been down a lot. But I think this is mostly due to some of their better plate discipline players like DeJong and Bader being out for long portions of the season and them being replaced with undercooked players who have horrible discipline like Justin Williams and Edmundo Sosa. I think by seasons end they will at least have an average walk rate. Plate discipline is a trait Albert is good at developing and this shouldn’t be debated.

Conclusion:

I think Jeff Albert is in fact an above average hitting coach. I don’t think he’s amazing but he is above average. The problems with him is that he’s just been the wrong fit with the cardinals because they need to have good linedrive development which is not Albert’s specialty. Albert should still be kept around however because his philosophy is clearly very good at devolving minor leaguers. Soon enough all the Jeff Albert era prospects will be ready to call up and Albert will be dealing with hitters with more power which is what fits and I envision a lot of offensive success will follow.