2020 Cardinals Offseason Plans and Biggest Question Marks

By: Ibrahim Hacking (@tyleroneillfan on Twitter)

This offseason has the potential to be very tumultuous for the redbirds. We have lots of contracts coming off the books while having many prospects who look ready to take over their spots. Let’s dive into it.

Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina, who signed a 3 year, $60 Million extension ahead of the 2018 Season. This contract was very controversial among fans, as in this time we had our top catching prospect, Carson Kelly, MLB Ready. However, following the 2018 season, The Cardinals front office quickly realized that Kelly would never have an opportunity in the MLB, and actually could hold quite a bit of value as a trade piece. Ahead of the 2019 season, Kelly was dealt to Arizona along with Luke Weaver and Andy Young in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt.

Currently, our former #4 Prospect Andrew Knizner is MLB Ready. In his career, Knizner has played 26 games behind the plate, batting .232 with an OBP of .280 and a SLG% of .362. In this limited opportunity, he has hit 2 home runs as well, and had a 70 wRC+ as a result. While this may not seem like a very impressive statline, Knizner has stung the ball. In the MLB his Average Exit Velocity is 89.5 MPH. This is 1.2 MPH above the MLB average, and he’s done this without consistent playing time and as a 25 year old. Now this is a small sample size, but not too many players can say this.

Now if we’re going to talk about potential Yadi replacements, it’s important to talk about Ivan Herrera. In A Ball in 2019, Herrera had a great season. In 69 games he batted .286 with a .381 OBP, a .423 SLG and a 136 wRC+. The most impressive part of this season to me was his 12.0% BB% and only a 19.2% K%. Not many 19 year old Prospects have that plate discipline, let alone a catching prospect. Now, not only does he have that elite plate discipline, but Herrera is one of 4 teenage Prospects who have a max EV Over 109 MPH. Fangraphs described him as a guy who “checks all the proverbial boxes”.

So, that was only the hitting aspect of Herrera’s game. Fangraphs scouting metrics gave Herrera a 45/55 Fielding grade, meaning that when developed, Herrera can be a plus defender. Compare this to Knizner’s fielding, which honestly is quite underwhelming. Last year, Knizner had a -4.1 FRM, which is Fangraphs framing metric. Not only was this abysmal, but it was only in 118.0 Innings on defense. Over 150 games, this would be -34 Framing runs. This would be the 2nd Worst defensive season since 2008 among catchers.

So, what should the Cardinals do? Should we trade Knizner? Should we resign Yadi? Let him Walk? Sign Yadi until Herrera is ready? Let’s answer that.

In my view, the best option is to let Yadi walk and give Knizner the starting spot until Herrera is available to start. In this scenario, we would save money while getting a young player with lots of potential the time to grow and develop. By 2022(Herrera’s ETA), we will know whether or not Knizner can be our catcher of the future. Yadi is declining heavily, and Knizner is as good with the potential to become much better than Yadi currently is.