2020 Opponent Scouting Report: Wild Card Round

By: Ibrahim Hacking (@tyleroneillfan on twitter)

Following a sprint of a 60 game season, which in fact was even more of a sprint for the Cardinals as they played 50+ Games in 40+ Days, the Cardinals clinched a postseason spot yesterday. With a 5-2 win against the Brewers, led by Harrison Bader who had a triple and a Solo Home Run, the Cardinals dominated the Brewers throughout.

        Now that the regular season is over, the Cardinals set their sights on San Diego, where they will play a best-of-three wild card series. Throughout this article, I’ll go through the Padres pitching and lineup, and see how the Cardinals stack up against them.

Starting Pitching

        The Padres boast a young, talented rotation filled with nasty pitchers. The pitchers the Cardinals will likely see are Dinelson Lamet, Mike Clevinger and Zach Davies. I’ll go through each of them and plot how they’ll match up against the Cardinals offense.

        The Cardinals approach this year has been defined by elite plate discipline and limited aggressiveness. Because of this, we would more likely want to face pitchers who walk more batters, and strike out less, and throw more pitches outside of the zone. Likely pitching game 1 for the Padres is Dinelson Lamet. Dinelson has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2020. With a 2.09 ERA paired with a 34.8% K% and only a 7.5% BB%. Lamet has taken a big leap forward in 2020, and he’s not someone the Cardinals should be excited to face. He has a 50.9 pitch in zone%, which is above average, and doesn’t seem to translate well for the Cardinals.

        Despite Lamet seeming like a nearly perfect pitcher based on the last paragraph, he does have a weak spot. Within his electric year becoming a true ace of the Padres, he has taken a step back in terms of Hard Hit%. With a 40% HH%, Lamet is far behind the MLB Average, and if the Cardinals can consistently make contact, we may be able to take advantage of Lamet’s weakness.

        The Likely game 2 Starter, depending on health, is Mike Clevinger. Clevinger started the season as an Indian, coming off of 2 4+ fWAR Seasons. However, while the Indians were in Chicago, Clevinger snuck out of the hotel and went to a nightclub, risking his team’s health with Covid. The Indians eventually decided that they couldn't keep him on the team, and dealt him to the Padres at the trade deadline. How does he stack up against the Cardinals Offense? Pretty good for the Cardinals actually.

        Despite Clevinger still having a high Zone%, meaning he pounds the zone at an above average rate, I still believe the Cardinals match up well with him. Clevinger put up some great years in Cleveland, but has taken a bit of a step back this year. He may have a 3.02 ERA, but if you take a step back, you’ll notice some underlying flaws. Clevinger’s K% Fell from 33.9% in 2019, to 24.7% in 2020. Not only has his Strikeout rate dipped, his BB% has increased from 7.4% in ‘19 to 8.6 in ‘20. So, with this decreased K-BB%, he seems like someone who matches up well with the Cardinals Offense.

        One Last thing to comment about Clevinger is that he has a 1.30 HR/9, a large increase from 0.71 last year. Going with this, his GB% has gone down 6.5% from 2019, meaning that teams often get Optimal Launch angle against him. These are both things that help out the Cardinals offense, which makes contact a lot and doesn’t swing at bad pitches too much.

        The Game 3 Starter could go either way. On one hand, Zach Davies has pitched very well this year, with a 2.88 ERA and only 6.9% BB%. On the other hand, Chris Paddack has far more potential, and had a great 2019, and won Rookie of the Month for April. However, in 2020, Paddack has taken a large step back. His ERA is up almost a whole run and a half, his FIP is up a run, and K% has gone down a couple points.

        Between these 2, we likely would face Davies, but I believe we match up very well against both as neither strike out many batters.

Bullpen

        The Padres bullpen was looking primed to be one of the best in the league coming into the year. The unit had Kirby Yates, their closer who led the league in saves with 41 in 2019. They also have Righty Emilio Pagan, who they dealt Manuel Margot to Tampa for. They also picked up Drew Pomeranz this offseason, a lefty specialist who didn’t give up a run all year until this past weekend. Rounding up the rest of the bullpen includes Dan Altavilla, Craig Stammen, Garret Richards and others.

Now, midseason, the Padres learned Kirby Yates was injured, and likely out for the year. Because of this, the Front Office decided to target Royals reliever and former Cardinal Trevor Rosenthal. Following some down years, Rosenthal has returned, with a 1.90 ERA and a 41.8% K%. While this seems like a great statline(which it is), the Cardinals got to him earlier in the year, as he walked 2 Batters and allowed 3 runs. Rosenthal misses the zone a lot, and the Cardinals are a team that isn’t going to chase a ton. Because of this, I believe the Cardinals can be a thorn in the Padre’s bullpen side.

Conclusion

        Overall, I believe the Cardinals match up very well with the Padres pitching, and the plate approach developed by Jeff Albert will work against pitchers who don’t throw tons of strikes. Because of this, I believe the Cardinals have a far better chance to win one game or even win the series than most mainstream national media would let on.