ITB Player Outlook: Harrison Bader

When Harrison Bader confidently told St. Louis media at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up that the center field position was his to lose, his confidence was met with much criticism from the outside. “Sorry, Harry, but you can’t hit”, one Twitter user replied. “He needs a buzzer” joked another, a reference to the Astros’ alleged cheating method in the 2019 playoffs. But the fact remains that the 25-year-old will have another shot to prove himself as the Cards’ everyday center fielder despite a down year offensively in 2019. And luckily for him, Mike Shildt and the front office value defense and baserunning, the two strongest facets of his game, more than most organizations. After an enigmatic two full seasons in St. Louis, the time has come for the former Florida Gator to solidify his place as one of the NL’s best all-around outfielders.

As the Cardinals dragged through the first half of the 2018 season, hovering around .500 with a roster capable of much more, the emergence of Bader’s excellent play at CF coupled with the hiring of Mike Shildt turned around their season and likely would have resulted in a playoff berth were it not for a poor September. Despite starting only 96 games, Bader’s 17 defensive runs saved (DRS) in the outfield tied for 4th among all big league outfielders, a welcome relief from the below-average outfield play of Tommy Pham(-6 DRS) and Dexter Fowler(-4). His 14 outs above average (similar to “5 star catches” ranked 5th among all outfielders, despite playing a fraction of the innings that the leaders did. His speed also brought a new element to St. Louis’ offends, racking up 15 stolen bases despite Mike Matheny’s refusal to run early in the year.

During the Cardinals successful early-2000s run, Tony La Russa once said that he didn’t care if his then-catcher Matheny hit .000, he was still going to start every day. When Bader was originally called up in 2017, many within the organization recognized his superb defensive ability, but considered his offense not worthy of an everyday lineup spot as La Russa did for his backstop. So when the young centerfielder’s production at the plate showed drastic improvements throughout 2018, fans and the executives alike were pleasantly surprised. His 107 weighted runs created (WRC+) ranked 7th among National League rookies in a year that saw Ronald Acuña and Juan Soto terrorize big league rotations. His consistency at the bottom of the lineup was much needed in the midst of a streaky offensive season for many others, and despite only starting 96 games ,his offensive WAR ranked second on the team behind the MVP-vote receiving Matt Carpenter.

But then came 2019. In a year where it seemed every Cardinal hitter minus Kolten Wong and Tommy Edman didn’t meet expectations, Bader’s struggles seemed to stick out the most. Pitchers figured out his tendencies when it came to breaking balls, and as a result he faced the highest curveball percentage (13.5%) on the team, and ranked 3rd in the NL behind only the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber and San Diego’s Hunter Renfroe. Surprisingly, his plate discipline wasn’t the main issue, as his chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone actually decreased, but he was unable to make good contact and as a result his sluggingpercentage on breaking pitches dropped from .315 in 2018 to .203. He continued to excel defensively, however, and even finished as a Gold Glove runner-up after coming back up to the majors in mid-August.

Despite the crowded outfield situation that Mike Shildt has in front of him, in all likelihood it will be Bader who is patrolling the outfield behind the excellent duo of Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong. More questionable are the potential roles of Dexter Fowler, the proven veteran who is coming off of a rough end to 2019 and a horrible spring, and the high-ceiling young duo of Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas. If Bader can produce offensively anywhere close to what he did in 2018, his top-tier play in center and speed on the basepaths is more than enough to justify an everyday role and a spot in the lineup. Reports coming out of Jupiter suggest he feels ready to take on the everyday starting job, and that his altered approach at the plate bodes well for the Cardinals’ hopes in 2020.

- Evan Walsh