ITB Prospect Watch: Week 2

As the Cardinals inch closer to their March 26th opener in Cincinnati, anticipation is building as the diehard St. Louis fanbase hopes to witness another one of the deep playoff runs they have grown accustomed to. Despite some fans’ frustration over the years when it comes to John Mozeliak and Mike Girsch’s implementation of “The Cardinal Way” and the lack of splashy free-agent signings/blockbuster trades that have come along with it, there is no denying that their goal of success at both minor and major league levels has been met. As we look back on another week of Spring Training play, let’s take a look at some prospects who have either impressed or disappointed as the regular season draws closer.

Trending Up:

● Max Schrock

When Mozeliak was put in the very difficult situation that was Stephen Piscotty’s potential trade in 2017, many both in and out of the organization dismissed any return as meaningless, that the real goal was to help Piscotty care for his family in Oakland. However, second baseman Max Schrock has emerged as a bright spot from that deal, especially considering his relatively low expectations. The former 13th-rounder is not ranked in the top 30 of the Cardinals’ system per MLB.com, but his .883 OPS and solid defense up the middle have likely put him on the front office’s radar. Schrock has also shown great discipline, drawing 6 walks in just 28 plate appearances and reaching base at a .429 clip, a crucial skill in St. Louis’ small-ball offense.

● Lane Thomas

Although Thomas has proven himself in St. Louis and likely solidified himself as more of a regular than a prospect, the 24-year-old has only accrued 34 at bats at the major league level and will have to continue his production to remain viable in Mike Shildt’s crowded outfield. However, his 2 home runs in 27 spring ABs and continued defensive production has him off to a good start in 2020. His .519 slugging percentage ranks 1st on the team out of those with at least 25 ABs, and his 5 walks are tied at the top with fellow prospect Rangel Ravelo. Baseball-Reference projects Thomas’ numbers to regress slightly from his outstanding pre-injury production in 2019, but his versatility and 5-tool potential has Redbird fans and execs feeling optimistic about the young outfielder’s future.

● Nolan Gorman

When Gorman was selected out of Sandra Day O’Connor HS with the 19th overall pick in 2018, scouts and teammates alike raved about the elite bat speed and power he brought from the left side of the plate. Although he is not likely to wear the big-league birds on the bat until at least late 2021, his place as St. Louis’ #2 prospect won’t change anytime soon. The 19-year-old was expected to show some signs of weakness when facing upper-level arms in Florida, but instead has excelled, posting an .846 OPS and driving in 4 key runs in his first 26 Grapefruit League plate appearances. If he can cut down on his strikeouts and swing-and-miss rates just a bit, the hot corner at Busch will be looking good for a long time.

Trending Down:

● Elehuris Montero

Although Montero came into spring training as the Cardinals’ 5th-ranked prospect and is likely to make his debut at some point in 2020, he hasn’t quite produced to expectations so far in the Sunshine State. The Cardinals’ $300,000 signing bonus, the largest of his international signing period, showed their belief in his all-around ability, and his compact yet powerful stroke projects well. However, this spring so far the 21-year-old is just 2 for 13, both of his hits singles, and has struck out in 5 of those 13 ABs without drawing a single walk. Among those with at least 10 ABs, Montero’s .368 OPS is ahead of only Dexter Fowler, and he is likely to drop within the Cardinals’ rankings if he can’t right the ship come AA season.

● Justin Williams

Usually we try to avoid repeats in this series, but unfortunately Williams has left us no choice. The converted outfielder has reached base just 4 times in 24 spring plate appearances (a .167 OBP), only slashing .091/.167/.364 despite being given ample opportunity by the managerial staff. A continued problem with Williams has been his ground-ball contact, which has lingered in his hitting mechanics since being drafted by the Diamondbacks out of high school in 2013. The Cardinals hope that their 3rd-ranked outfield prospect (#16 overall) can break out of his slump either later this spring or in Memphis, and that he could be a valuable big-league contributor off the bench if needed, but he must show more of the natural hitting ability he showcased coming up through the lower ranks.

● John Nogowski

Like the previously mentioned Max Schrock, 27-year-old first baseman John Nogowski is not found within St. Louis’ top 30 prospects, but unlike Schrock, Nogowski has not done much this spring to prove otherwise. The Florida State product has just 4 hits in his 18 Grapefruit League at bats, and his .222 slugging percentage is second-last among Cardinals with at least 15 ABs, ahead of only Dexter Fowler(if you haven’t noticed, Fowler has also been very bad so far). Having spent the better part of 6 years in the minor league systems of both Oakland and St. Louis, Nogowski’s time may be running out, but those in the organization hope he can regain the magic from his junior season in Tallahassee, when he slashed .307/.431/.443 and led the Seminoles to a NCAA Tournament appearance along with former Cardinal Luke Weaver and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston.

Sources: Baseball-Reference, MLB.com, Fangraphs, seminoles.com

- Evan Walsh (@evan_walsh24 on twitter)