Who Gets the 9th?

As the Cardinals await the start of the 2020 season amidst the rapidly evolving coronavirus situation, their Opening Day roster looks pretty much set, especially with the sudden departure of Yairo Muñoz. However, with the flamethrowing Jordan Hicks likely out until late July/early August, the closer role again is up for grabs. As spring training began, Mike Shildt told reporters that he did not have any one pitcher in mind to take over the role, and that it was essentially a free-for-all competition that could continue into the regular season. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of the top candidates for save-situation work, and how they stack up against each other within St. Louis’ stellar bullpen.

Carlos Martinez

When news broke that Miles Mikolas would not be ready for opening day with a forearm issue, it seemed very likely Martinez would be slotting into his former role as a starter. However, the likely long delay due to coronavirus concerns could see Mikolas return at the start of the year, potentially sending Martinez back to the bullpen. Despite some struggles in the playoffs and many close calls, Martinez did an exceptional job filling in as closer when Jordan Hicks went down in June, posting a 3.72 ERA and striking out 31 batters to just 11 walks in save situations. If Mike Shildt decides to fill out his rotation with Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson and the newly signed Kwang-Hyun Kim, Martinez could fit right into his 2019 role until Hicks is able to return.

John Gant

When the Cardinals announced back in June that Hicks was undergoing Tommy John surgery and was out for the season, many clamored for Gant to take over the 9th-inning work. In the first half of 2019, Gant had been a welcome surprise out of the bullpen after a mediocre 2018, showcasing an ERA below 2.50 and a 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unfortunately, it seemed Gant, Hicks, and fellow righthander John Brebbia were the only reliable arms Mike Shildt had at his disposal for much of the year, and Gant was likely overworked throughout the first half of the season. After the All-Star Break, his ERA ballooned over 6.00, and he struggled with command issues to the tune of just 21 strikeouts to 19 walks. If the 27-year-old Georgian can find anything close to the success he had early last year, he will be a leading candidate for high-leverage innings.

Giovanny Gallegos

When the Cardinals traded hometown prospect Luke Voit to the Yankees at the deadline in 2018, many were skeptical, and grew annoyed when they saw Voit destroying AL East pitching as part of a lethal New York lineup while Chasen Shreve was floundering as a lefty specialist in St. Louis. However, the 2019 emergence of Giovanny Gallegos, the other returning piece in that deal, has quieted those critics in a short period of time. The 27-year-old Mexican with the funky delivery was seen by many as just an injury fill-in early in the year, but quickly evolved into arguably Mike Maddux’s most reliable arm. Gallegos’ versatility and effectiveness against both right-handed and left-handed hitters allowed

Shildt to call on his young righthander in almost any situation, rather than having to deal with pinch-hitters and potential double switches. Gallegos was used in certain spots as a closer in 2019, posting a 2.08 ERA and a minuscule 0.85 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) despite his strikeout numbers dipping a bit towards the end of the year. He could be the set closer in 2020, but likely will continue his role of rescue-man, getting the high-leverage outs in any inning.

Andrew Miller

Although Miller has become more of a left-handed specialist in the later stages of his career, his past experience in Cleveland (as well as the new three-batter minimum rule going into effect this year) could put him in late-inning, meaningful matchups due to injury or others’ struggles. Despite a very poor beginning and end to his 2019 campaign, Miller actually performed well in save situations overall, posting a 3.78 ERA and striking out 40 over 33 1⁄3 innings of work. If Miller does regain anything close to his All-Star form, he will likely be slotted in the 8th inning, the role he dominated in as part of a lethal Cleveland Indians staff. His best year overall came in 2017, when he compiled a 1.91 ERA and 47 strikeouts to just 7 walks in the 8th inning, on his way to an All-Star appearance in Miami. Miller showed signs of his old self at times last year, getting back up to the mid-90s and mixing in that deadly slider, but he must improve his command and consistency to carve out his role in St. Louis’ bullpen.

Wild Cards:

Ryan Helsley

Although Helsley certainly has the pure stuff to succeed in a late-inning role, his ability to get through multiple innings in long relief is much more valuable, and proved crucial in 2019 as Michael Wacha struggled with that job. Before spring play was suspended, Mike Maddux had been preparing Helsley for that long-relief/spot starter role, but if someone like Daniel Ponce de Leon takes over in that spot, Helsley could see some meaningful late-inning work.

John Brebbia

Although Brebbia excelled in a similar vein as John Gant, his pure stuff doesn’t really fit the prototype of a major league closer. He will likely take over 6th/7th inning work again as long as he can remain consistent and utilize his fastball-slider combo to miss barrels as he did in 2019. The red-bearded righthander will likely see some late-inning opportunities throughout the course of the year, but is unlikely to take over that role full-time.

Alex Reyes

The Cardinals’ front office is still unsure exactly what they have in Reyes, as years of injuries and inconsistency have clouded the future of the once-heralded prospect. Mike Shildt tried Reyes out in some late-inning situations at the start of the 2019 season, but a blown save on Opening Day and multiple injuries in the minors (including a broken hand after punching a wall) left him unable to contribute at the major-league level. Reyes certainly has the stuff to close, but his overall performance and health will have to improve in order to be given that opportunity.

- Evan Walsh

Sources: BaseballReference, Fangraphs, MLB.com, StlToday, SNY